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01/26/13 -  Associated Press - Could Kerry, Hagel Drive Reboot in US-Cuba Ties?

By PAUL HAVEN Associated Press 

HAVANA 

The nominee for U.S. Secretary of State, Sen.  John Kerry, once held up millions
of dollars in funding for secretive U.S. democracy-building programs in Cuba.
Defense Secretary hopeful Chuck Hagel has called the U.S. embargo against the
communist-run island "nonsensical" and anachronistic.

Both men are now poised to occupy two of the most important positions in
President Barack Obama's Cabinet, leading observers on both sides of the Florida
Straits to say the time could be ripe for a reboot in relations between the
longtime Cold War enemies - despite major obstacles still in the way.

Kerry's confirmation hearing was held last Thursday, with Hagel's likely to
begin next Thursday.  In a day marked by platitudes and praise from his longtime
colleagues, the Massachusetts Democrat up for top U.S. diplomat sidestepped two
questions on Cuba without giving any hint of his opinion on bilateral relations.

Yet Kerry's record has showed some openness to relaxing the tough U.S. stance on
Cuba.

"I think having a secretary of state and secretary of defense who understand and
are willing to speak publicly that isolation is counterproductive is a very good
start," said Tomas Bilbao, executive director of the nonpartisan Cuba Study
Group, which advocates using engagement to spur democratic change.  "I'm
optimistic about the opportunity."  Cuba US Reboot.JPEG AP FILE - In this Oct.
23, 2009 file photo,... View Full Caption

Carlos Alzugaray, an ex-Cuban ambassador to the European Union and the author of
several studies about Cuba-US relations, said that if both men are confirmed, no
Cabinet since the Carter administration would have such high-level voices in
favor of rapprochement.

At the same time, the composition of Cuban-Americans in Florida is evolving,
with younger voters less emotionally attached to the issue than their parents
and grandparents.  Exit polls showed 49 percent of Cuban-Americans in the state
voted for Obama, roughly the same percentage as four years ago, an indication
the group no longer plays the make-or-break role it once did in presidential
politics.

The atmosphere is changing in Cuba as well.

Alzugaray noted that the island has taken many steps that would normally be
welcomed by Washington such as freeing dozens of political prisoners, opening
the economy to limited capitalism, hosting peace talks for war-torn Colombia and
eliminating most restrictions on travel for its own citizens.

"Cuba is changing, and it is changing in the direction that the United States
says Cuba must change," Alzugaray told The Associated Press in an interview in
his Havana apartment.

The greatest obstacle to better ties is undoubtedly the continued imprisonment
of U.S. contractor Alan Gross, who is serving a 15-year sentence for crimes
against the state after he was caught setting up clandestine Internet networks
as part of a U.S. Agency for International Development democracy-building
program.

Havana has insisted the 63-year-old Gross will not be released unless Washington
considers freeing five Cuban agents held in the United States.  One is out on
supervised release but was ordered to remain in the country, and the other four
are still incarcerated.

Critics of engagement, including several prominent Cuban-American legislators,
say none of the reforms Cuba has made brings the island closer to being a
democratic state after 54 years of rule by brothers Fidel and Raul Castro.

Dissidents are still detained and harassed, they say, the Cuban news media is
not free, elections are restricted to approved candidates and the Cuban
parliament acts as little more than a rubber stamp for decisions made by the
island's aging leaders.

Rep.  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Havana-born Florida Republican and staunch critic
of the Castros, told the AP she was deeply concerned about both Cabinet
nominees.

"I think both are bad for strengthening the U.S.-Cuba embargo," she said.  "They
would work for an appeasement policy.  They would work to normalize relations.
That is their philosophy.  But they won't be able to achieve it."

Ros-Lehtinen said she hoped Kerry's likely replacement as chairman of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, Cuban-American Democrat Bob Menendez of New Jersey,
would block any attempt to take a softer line.

As committee chairman in 2011, Kerry held up millions of dollars in funding for
the same program that Gross was involved in, out of concern that it was
ill-conceived and a waste of money.  He later cut a deal with Menendez to free
up the money.  At the hearing on Thursday, Kerry said that as secretary of
state, he would support such programs worldwide, but did not mention Cuba.

Hagel, a former Republican senator from Nebraska, has termed the 50-year-old
trade embargo an "outdated, unrealistic, irrelevant policy" and said the U.S.
should engage with the island, just as it does with other communist countries
such as Vietnam and China.

In his first term, Obama eliminated restrictions on the number of times
Cuban-Americans can visit their relatives on the island, and the amount of money
they can send back in remittances.  He also has made it much easier for American
travelers to get licenses to visit the island on cultural, educational and
religious exchanges, though tourism is still barred.

Since 2009, the number of Americans traveling to Cuba has nearly doubled from
52,000 per year to 103,000 in 2012, according to statistics compiled by the firm
the Havana Consulting Group.  Trips by Cuban-Americans to visit their relatives
rose from 335,000 to 476,000 a year during the same period.  The surge puts the
United States second only to Canada as the source of travelers to the island.

But just as American officials have met Cuban reforms with lukewarm
indifference, Cuban leaders have dismissed Obama's overtures as window-dressing,
saying he has in many ways strengthened the embargo by going after companies
that do business with the island.

Cuban officials have been reluctant to talk about the Kerry and Hagel
nominations for fear their words will be used by opponents.  But a
pro-government Web site, Cubasi, published an opinion piece Thursday detailing
both men's past opposition to America's Cuba policy.

"Chuck Hagel has no problem with Cuba," wrote the author, well-known columnist
Nicanor Leon Cotayo.  "On the contrary, he has demonstrated common sense to do
away with one of the White House's most anachronistic foreign policies."

Cotayo added that Obama has "real and legal options to maneuver and diminish
tension in bilateral relations."

Others say they are not holding their breath for any change.

Alzugaray, the longtime Cuban diplomat, threw up his hands and shrugged when
asked why he was not more optimistic that the stars would align for better
relations this time around.

"That dog has bit me several times," he laughed.  "I've often thought that now
is the time, the possibilities are there, but always something has complicated
things."

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Associated Press writer Christine Armario in Miami contributed to this report.

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Paul Haven on Twitter: www.twitter.com/paulhaven