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03/15/13 - Bloomberg - Yoani Sanchez Sees Accelerating Change in Cuba Post Chávez 

Cuban dissident blogger Yoani Sanchez, on her first visit to the U.S., said
the death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will help fuel economic
changes beyond the government's control on the Caribbean island.

"In recent months the pace of change has been accelerating, and not because
of the government's efforts," Sanchez said in an interview today at
Bloomberg's headquarters in New York. "The death of Hugo Chavez and the
possible reduction of Venezuelan subsidies is one variable accelerating
this change. We're in uncharted territory."

[1]Venezuela sends Cuba about 100,000 barrels of oil a day, helping
President Raul Castro's government undermine a U.S. trade embargo in
exchange for Cuban doctors sent to community clinics. Another 100,000
barrels per day are sent to 18 Caribbean and Central American countries in
the Petrocaribe program. That aid could be reduced as interim President
Nicolas Maduro confronts a widening deficit, Heather Berkman, an analyst at
the Eurasia Group, said in a March 12 report.

Sanchez, who will meet lawmakers in Washington next week, said Castro's
economic changes to date have been too small because the government is
concerned greater economic freedoms will weaken its political power. She
dismissed Castro's Feb. 24 statement that he'll leave power after his
current term ends in 2018, saying that he's already had 54 years in power
as president and second-in-command under his 86-year-old brother, former
President Fidel Castro.

Travel Restrictions

Sanchez's visit, part of her first foreign travel after more than five
years of seeking permission to leave the island, follows Castro's decision
in January to ease some travel restrictions. Not all dissidents have been
allowed to leave, and Sanchez said she fears what may happen to her or her
family when she returns to Cuba.

Messages and e-mails to press officials at the Cuban Interests Section in
[2]Washington and the Foreign Ministry in [3]Havana weren't immediately
answered.

Venezuela is likely to prioritize oil shipments to Cuba and any reduction
would come in the "longer term," Berkman wrote in a March 12 report.
Countries including the Dominican Republic, [4]Nicaragua and [5]Jamaica are
at higher risk of seeing aid reduced, she said.

Maduro, who replaced Chavez following his March 5 death from cancer, said
this month that the government will "strengthen" Petrocaribe, without
giving more details.

Not Enough

Since Fidel began handing over presidential powers in 2006, his 81-year-old
brother has initiated measures to open Cuba's $61 billion economy,
including loosening of property laws, the creation of more cooperatives and
allowing private businesses such as taxis and mobile-phone companies. A vow
to dismiss 500,000 state workers hasn't been carried out.

"These reforms are not sufficient, but they are significant," said Ted
Henken, a sociology professor at Baruch College who helped arrange
Sanchez's New York trip. "The government is trying to control the demands
bubbling up from the people."

Sanchez, whose "Generation Y" blog has served as an outlet for her
frustrations with daily life under the Castro regime, said growing economic
independence will eventually erode the government's grip on society.

By offering economic opportunity, "an ice cream-making machine in Cuba
today could be as subversive as a dissident's statement," Sanchez said.

'Century of Dictators'

A transition to a more market-based economy should focus on aiding small
entrepreneurs, not established companies, Sanchez said. A failure to do so
could result in military leaders becoming businessmen with monopoly power
in different economic sectors, she said.

Latin Americans will also closely watch the U.S. role in any transition,
Sanchez said. If a transition isn't managed well, "we could have another
century of dictators and strongmen."

First Vice President Manuel Diaz-Canel, who would succeed Raul Castro if he
can't finish his term, was "named not for his abilities, but for his
loyalty," Sanchez said.

"We really don't know who he is," she said. "He's managed to survive
surrounded by wolves because he hasn't stood out. He's probably the
unhappiest man in Cuba now."

Prior to arriving in New York yesterday, Sanchez's travels had taken her to
Mexico and [6]Brazil, where she faced protests from pro-Castro groups who
say she is supported by the Central Intelligence Agency.

If she isn't allowed to return to Cuba, Sanchez said she'll have to sneak
back into the country where refugees often leave in hopes of making it to
the U.S.

"I'll become the first person to board a raft to get back into Cuba," she
said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Faries in New York at
[7]wfaries@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andre Soliani at
[8]asoliani@bloomberg.net

[9]Enlarge image

Chavez Death to Accelerate Cuban Economic Change, Dissident Says

[10]Chavez Death to Accelerate Cuban Economic Change, Dissident Says

Scott Eells/Bloomberg

Cuban dissident Yoani Sanchez's "Generation Y" blog has served as an outlet
for her frustrations with daily life under the Castro.

Cuban dissident Yoani Sanchez's "Generation Y" blog has served as an outlet
for her frustrations with daily life under the Castro.  Photographer: Scott
Eells/Bloomberg

[11]Enlarge image [12]Yoani Sanchez

Yoani Sanchez

[13]Yoani Sanchez

Scott Eells/Bloomberg

Cuban dissident Yoani Sanchez listens during an interview in New York on
March 15, 2013.

Cuban dissident Yoani Sanchez listens during an interview in New York on
March 15, 2013. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

References

Visible links 1. http://topics.bloomberg.com/venezuela/ 2.
http://topics.bloomberg.com/washington/ 3.
http://topics.bloomberg.com/havana/ 4.
http://topics.bloomberg.com/nicaragua/ 5.
http://topics.bloomberg.com/jamaica/ 6. http://topics.bloomberg.com/brazil/
7. Send E-mail mailto:wfaries@bloomberg.net 8. Send E-mail
mailto:asoliani@bloomberg.net 9.
http://www.bloomberg.com/photo/chavez-death-to-accelerate-cuban-economic-change-dissident-says-/303227.html
11. http://www.bloomberg.com/photo/yoani-sanchez-/303229.html 12.
http://www.bloomberg.com/photo/yoani-sanchez-/303229.html


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