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10/13/09 - Miami Herald - Bills to open U.S.-Cuba travel pick up steam --
but face uncertain future

BY JUAN O. TAMAYO
El Nuevo Herald

A powerful campaign to allow all Americans to travel to Cuba is rumbling
through Congress, with both backers and opponents predicting eventual
victory and a Cuban-American Senator holding a key vote.

Approval of the measures would have a profound impact on U.S.-Cuba
relations, unleashing an estimated one million American tourists to visit
the island and undermining White House control of policy toward Havana.

``There would be an explosion of contacts between Americans and Cubans . . .
that would almost overshadow what the two governments are doing,'' said Phil
Peters, a Cuba expert with the Lexington Institute think thank in suburban
Washington.

Proponents say the measures still have not received active support from the
White House and the Democratic leadership in both chambers.

Cuban officials have told recent U.S. visitors that while President Barack
Obama's policy changes so far have been too timid to require a Havana reply,
ending the U.S. travel ban would be significant enough to require some sort
of Havana concession.

Even opponents of the free-travel bills in the House and Senate admit the
campaign for approval is powerful. ``I have never seen a stronger effort,''
said Mauricio Claver-Carone of the U.S.-Cuba Democracy political action
committee.

Backing the change has been the U.S. travel industry -- Orbitz says it has
100,000 signatures on a petition -- and dozens of newspaper editorials,
large agricultural companies, former Secretary of State George Shultz, New
Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and groups that traditionally oppose U.S.
sanctions on the island.

``Our goals should be to get rid of the travel ban in the next six months,''
Richardson said Friday during a speech to the National Democratic Network in
Washington. ``This is a step in the right direction,'' Shultz declared last
month.

Polls show 60-70 percent of all Americans favor lifting the travel
restrictions, and one House bill championed by Massachusetts Democrat Bill
Delahunt has gathered 180 sponsors -- 38 short of the 218 votes required for
passage.

Obama ended all restrictions on Cuban-Americans' travel to the island on
Sept. 3. But other U.S. citizens and residents can travel only under special
permits for groups such as churches, academics and business -- not for
tourism. That was allowed, however, from 1977 to 1982 under former President
Jimmy Carter's efforts to normalize relations with Cuba.

Most of the public attention has been focused on the House bill backed by
Delahunt and Rep. Sam Farr, D-Calif. Farr, noting that U.S agricultural
sales to Cuba are allowed but not tourism, has repeated several variations
of the line that ``We can send American potatoes to Cuba, but not American
people.''

But a lesser-known version has a better chance of passing because it also
eases restrictions on U.S. agricultural and medical sales to Cuba, in hopes
of gathering support from those lobbies, said a Senate Republican staffer
monitoring the progress of the travel bills.

The main Senate version of the measure -- with 25 co-sponsors from both
parties at last count -- is being championed by Sens. Chris Dodd, D-Conn.,
Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., Michael Enzi, R-Wyo. and Richard Lugar, R-Ind.

But backers of the changes say the bills have not moved forward through the
congressional maze so far because of the lack of active support from the
Obama administration and the Democratic leadership in both chambers.

``The Obama people are showing timidity. They are sitting on their hands,''
said a Senate aide whose Democratic boss favors lifting all travel
restrictions. He asked for anonymity because he was not authorized to
comment on the issue.

Administration officials say lifting all travel restrictions would be too
drastic and perhaps chaotic, and the the president prefers a more measured
warming of relations. They stop short of saying whether Obama would sign or
veto the bill if passed by Congress.

``At the end of the day this is a leadership issue,'' said the Senate
Republican aide, who also asked for anonymity. ``Do the Democrats have the
will to bring this up [for a vote] with all the other issues -- healthcare,
Afghanistan, etc.''

Most of Washington's Cuba watchers agree the full Congress is probably going
to pass some bills easing Cuba sanctions, most likely one re-defining the
requirement that Havana pay ``cash in advance'' for U.S. food purchases. The
change would allow Cuba to pay when the shipments reach Havana, not before
they leave U.S. ports as now required.

But the future of the ``Free Travel to Cuba'' initiatives is far more
uncertain, with most of those monitoring the struggle saying that some
version will likely pass the House, but all will almost certainly die in the
Senate.

Delahunt ``has a pretty impressive list of sponsors. That bill looks good in
the House,'' said a former Bush administration Cuba expert. ``Delahunt will
pass the House,'' added an Obama administration official. Both asked for
anonymity so they could speak frankly about the topic.

But most supporters as well as opponents say the travel measures are
unlikely to pass the Senate, where the Democrats have a smaller majority and
the bills face stiff opposition from Bob Menendez, a powerful Cuban American
Democrat from New Jersey and Florida's Bill Nelson, a Democrat, and George
LeMieux, a Republican.

Menendez and Nelson have strongly opposed easing the ban on U.S. tourism.
LeMieux, who replaced Sen. Mel Martinez, is expected to also oppose easing
the travel restrictions.

``This is a battle of perceptions. The pro-travel groups are claiming they
will win, in the hope of creating the sense of movement and victory,'' said
Claver-Carone. ``But in the end, the Senate will be tough, if not
impossible.''

Juan Tamayo can be reached at jtamayo@ElNuevoHerald.com.